The upcoming week is set to have important macroeconomic events that could shape crypto sentiment moving forward. This week, however, will likely be a tad different from the previous. While pre-scheduled economic prints will still hold weight and help us assess things like inflationary pressures and unemployment in the U.S. — the reports involving the U.S.-Israel / Iran conflict are far more likely to shape markets in the short term.
For instance, while we had important updates on home sales in the U.S. today, the real market-mover report came hours ago after President Trump declared a ceasefire had been reached between Israel and Iran. Bitcoin reacted positively, going from $98,000 yesterday to as high as $106,000 only hours after the announcement.
Tuesday – Powell Testifies
On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before the Joint Economic Committee in Washington, DC. Powell will begin with a statement on the current economic outlook in America, and later will answer questions from lawmakers in what’s expected to be a closely watched session.
This testimony comes just days after the Fed opted to keep interest rates steady, much to Donald Trump’s dislike. This event will be important as it will give us a glimpse of what the Fed has going on and what to expect from future decisions in 2025.
Wednesday – New Home Sales
The second leg of Powell’s testimony will take place on Wednesday, this time before the Senate Banking Committee. While the prepared remarks are expected to mirror Tuesday’s, the Q&A session could offer fresh insight—especially if lawmakers press him on the ceasefire’s economic implications, Trump’s renewed calls for rate cuts, or the Fed’s stance on tariff-driven inflation. Markets will be watching for any deviation from the Fed’s “wait-and-see” posture.
Also on deck: May’s new home sales. The forecast sits at 692,000, down from 743,000 in April. That’s a notable drop, and if confirmed, it would reinforce the narrative of a cooling housing market. With mortgage rates still hovering near 7% and affordability stretched, even modest declines in sales could weigh on broader economic sentiment.
Thursday – Final Q1 GDP
Thursday, we’ll get to take a look at the final U.S. GDP print for this year’s first quarter. Analysts predict that the second estimate will hit the mark, and tomorrow’s GDP print will show a 0.2% contraction in the U.S. economy.
A stronger read might give Powell cover to lower rates, especially with Trump ramping up pressure to ease. Meanwhile, a weaker-than-expected print will likely get the Fed even more vigilant, decreasing the chance of an interest rate slash in July.
Friday – Fed’s Preferred Inflation Metric
Friday wraps the week with the Core PCE Price Index for May, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The forecast sits at 0.1% month-over-month, matching April’s print.
If the PCE comes out better or even according to forecasts, it’ll reinforce the narrative that inflation is cooling, albeit slowly. However, a more volatile print —especially one showing hotter-than-expected inflation—could quickly rattle market expectations and undermine hopes for a rate cut later this year.
For cryptocurrencies, a soft PCE reading could reinforce the momentum seen on Monday, potentially extending Bitcoin and other assets’ rally into a multi-week pump.
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