- Bitcoin reacted strongly from the H2 demand zone, jumping nearly 4K
- Current H2 supply might not hold, with cleaner liquidity above around 121–122K
- Geopolitical tensions from the Israel-Syria incident could inject fresh volatility into Bitcoin’s short-term path
On Monday, July 14th, we highlighted a pretty clean H2 demand zone sitting just below a weaker daily demand and underneath some juicy uncollected liquidity.
“Just below that daily demand, there’s a clearer H2 demand sitting with uncollected liquidity above it. That zone is interesting—it could be where smart money wants to reload before pushing again.”
That was the zone that looked like smart money’s reload area. And turns out—it delivered.
Bitcoin tapped that H2 demand and launched from around 116K to nearly 119,800. A textbook 1:5 risk-reward play.
But here’s where things start getting murky again.
Just minutes ago, reports surfaced that Israel struck the Syrian defense minister near the presidential palace.
Geopolitical tensions like these? They can shift market dynamics in unpredictable ways.
Historically, risk assets often get shaky during global escalations—while some turn to gold or USD as safe havens, crypto has increasingly become part of the narrative too. But not always in the way people expect.
Sometimes BTC rallies as a hedge, other times it corrects sharply as traders derisk.
It really depends on how sharp and prolonged the conflict is, and how traditional markets react in tandem. So no, there’s no one-size-fits-all response. But it does introduce volatility. And volatility at all-time highs? That’s a loaded cocktail.
Speaking of highs—Bitcoin is currently trading right on top of an H2 supply.
Honestly, I don’t trust it to hold. There’s liquidity sitting right above this level that looks too attractive not to grab.
The supply I find more interesting lies a little higher, between 121K and 122K. That one could act as a legit reaction point… if we don’t leave a trail of untapped liquidity on the way there.
Because let’s be real: reacting to a zone that’s been front-run or has uncollected stops nearby isn’t ideal. Especially not when Bitcoin is in unexplored price discovery.
We’re in a region with no historical data to the left. It’s all virgin territory. And that means levels are softer, liquidity becomes the magnet, and smart money can afford to be surgical.
Still, none of this is guaranteed.
This market is the definition of unpredictable. Scenarios we lay out may or may not play out exactly. A sudden macro shift, a whale move, or even another geopolitical twist—and the chart’s readjusted.
That’s the beauty and chaos of trading crypto in 2025.
So if you’re mapping your own zones, stay flexible. Let the market prove itself. Don’t marry a level, especially not in an environment this sensitive.
And remember—Bitcoin does what it wants, when it wants. We can only do our best to follow the footprints.
